Dry conditions have blanketed the state in previous years, and meteorologists predict another dry season as precipitation levels are falling below average in Montana.
Across regions of Montana typically blanketed in snow, unusually dry conditions have persisted. All things considered, North Central Montana has had a warm winter and what that could mean for the spring ahead – has many people concerned.
“November, December and the first half of January turned out to be very dry. On February 1st — which is about the halfway point throughout winter — 92 of our SNOTEL tell sites that measure precipitation -- were either at their record driest or their second record driest. So, we developed the significant deficit,” explained National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Brusda.
As of now, the precipitation in North Central Montana is 30% below normal. Meteorologists have attributed the atypical weather patterns to a number of things — including the shift of climate patterns in El Nino.
We’ve talked about it before, but what does a weather pattern in El Nino mean?
In simple terms, it means the warming of the Pacific Ocean, which produces warmer winters and less precipitation to the forecast. That’s why we saw such an unusually dry winter this year.
“It's going to be difficult to achieve everything we want to achieve in terms of replenishing if we're going to have below-normal precipitation,” Brusda said.
The bit of precipitation we have received has brought some reprieve but not enough. The question now is will the precipitation this May and June be enough to get as back around average before the dry months? The answer is probably not.
“We're going to have a few systems and improve it a little bit. But the odds of us getting back the deficit that we're in…it's most likely not going to happen,” Brusda said.
All hope isn’t completely gone for next winter’s precipitation.
“If we can make it through November without being significantly below normal, we have a reasonable chance that next winter [to] at least have normal, if not above normal precipitation -- at least statistically showing there's an 80% chance of that occurring,” Brusda noted.
Next year’s winter in La Nina will promote a wetter and colder season, which will aid recovery from what’s gearing up to be a hot and dry summer. Hope for the future still remains strong.
