BILLINGS — The MSU Billings Mountain States Poll, released Tuesday, shows the race is tied between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., and Republican Tim Sheehy while other national polls show Sheehy with a slight advantage.
This most recent poll is conducted by a political science class at MSU Billings.
The professor who teaches that class says there was some bipartisan concern on some issues, but maybe as expected, there was partisanship in several areas including the U.S. Senate race in the poll, which is in its 37th year.
The poll result has Tester and Sheehy tied at 43%. The poll has a 3.56% margin of error and is from a random sample of 760 people on the phone and online.
“We saw a very close race so much so that we weren't able to determine who would be the winner,” said Dr. Hope Gentry, MSUB assistant professor.
Gentry helped students run the Mountain States poll.
The latest national poll from Emerson College shows Sheehy with a 50% to 46% lead over Tester.
"Other polls across the country since the summer have shown Sheehy in the lead single digits but sometimes by six or eight points,” said Dr. Jeremy Johnson associate professor at Carroll College. “So this is actually very good news for Tester."
Johnson, who is also head of Carroll’s political science and international relations department, says polls are always a challenge, "It's hard to predict ahead of time."
Tester led 47% to 38% in the Mountain States Poll in 2018 and won 50% to 47%. In 2012, Tester trailed 43% to 40% but won by a 48% to 45% margin. And in 2006, he led incumbent Conrad Burns, 46% to 35% but won the race by less than 1%.
“It'd be something of an upset at this point if he wins,” Johnson said. “However, I think it's still very reasonable, it's still plausible from the polling we've seen, including this poll. But there's certainly a path to victory for Tester.”
The MSU Billings pollsters ask similar questions about Congress and the president. And students write some of their own questions.
“The poll ends up being very much on the pulse of what's important and popular in Montana and to Montanans,” Dewell Gentry said.
This time, the students asked about Constitutional Initiative 128 to “amend the state constitution to expressly provide a right to abortion.”
The poll shows 60% approve of the initiative and 25% disapprove.
Gentry believes those who chose third-party candidates and the undecided could affect the races next week.
“They're allowed to say, I don't know, “ Gentry said about those answering questions for the poll. “But you can't do that when you go actually into the (voting) booth. By that time, they have to pick one.”
The 2024 poll results are available online.
