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What role could third-party presidential candidates play in the 2024 election?

A recent poll in Wisconsin showed independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who endorsed Donald Trump, with 3% support.
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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are not the only presidential candidates voters will see on their ballots this year.

Chase Oliver is the Libertarian's presidential nominee. Jill Stein is running for president on behalf of the Green Party. And Cornell West is running as an independent candidate.

While the polls show no third-party candidate is running a campaign strong enough to seriously challenge Harris or Trump, the campaigns will be keeping an eye on the support they are getting.

As Politico's Brittany Gibson notes, West is capable of getting votes that may traditionally lean Democratic.
"He has really galvanized the pro-Palestinian true activist support," she said.

Experts say that to understand just how consequential a third-party vote could be, look no further than Wisconsin.

In 2016, Trump won the state by a little more than 20,000 votes. In 2020, he lost by around the same margin.

In 2016, over 100,000 Wisconsin voters cast a ballot for the Libertarian candidate and over 30,000 cast a ballot for Stein, who ran that year as well.

The Democratic National Committee is acutely aware of the impact third-party candidates may have this year. Last week, they launched this attack ad against Stein, which is airing in swing states like Wisconsin.
"Stein was key to Trump's 2016 wins in battleground states," the ad says.

The biggest third-party question mark may involve someone who is no longer running for president. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Trump weeks ago but is still on the ballot in many states, including some swing states. A recent Wisconsin poll showed Kennedy still earning 3% support.