Average global temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The agency expects 2024 to be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures expected to exceed 1.55° Celsius above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels for 2024.
The new data comes following the second-warmest October ever recorded, with a global average temperature of 15.25° Celsius, which is about 0.8° higher than the 1990-2020 average.
Climatologists have noted a rapid increase in global temperatures in the last few years after decades of steady growth.
“After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset,” Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said. “This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29."
The United Nations has set the target of keeping global temperatures below a 1.5° increase by 2030.
Although a 1.5° increase is merely a target, scientists have said the world can mitigate climate change’s worst effects if temperatures can remain below that threshold.
“With every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes and risks become larger. For example, every additional 0.1°C of global warming causes clearly discernible increases in the intensity and frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes, as well as agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions,” the U.N. has said.
