Within days of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, there is still no clear answer from authorities on the shooter’s motive. That gap in information is fueling conspiracy theories and misinformation on social media.
"A lack of information is a real catalyst when it comes to promoting the spread of mis- and disinformation. And that's what the public is dealing with now," Sara Aniano, a disinformation analyst at the Anti-Defamation League Center on Extremism, told Scripps News.
Multiple investigations have been launched into the shocking assassination attempt at a Trump rally Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. It could take weeks or months for them to provide answers Americans — and the world — want now.
“The more time festers between the incident and kind of the explanation why, the more likely there are to be conspiracy theories and misinformation,” Aniano said.
Conspiracy theories seeking to explain or exploit the motive of the shooter include false claims that the shooting was “staged,” or an “inside job.”
Authorities investigating the shooting have not announced whether the shooter, identified by authorities as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, who was shot and killed by the Secret Service after opening fire at the rally, left behind clues as to his motive.
"Sometimes they leave a manifesto. Sometimes they leave some kind of other social media footprint that allows us to better assess and more quickly assess what their ideology was,” Aniano said.
But Crooks, a resident of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, left no apparent digital footprint. The FBI investigating the shooting said the agency gained access to Crooks’ phone, car and home. The early stages of the investigation have not yielded a motive.
Filling this gap are conspiracy theories, rumors and false information flooding social media feeds like Facebook and X, at both ends of the political spectrum.
“Staged”
Within hours of the attempted assassination, many took to social media to declare the shooting was a “staged” event. One account, with less than 500 followers, falsely claimed Trump faked his injury using a blood pill. The post racked up 3 million views just hours after the shooting.
After shots rang out at the rally, Trump could be seen grabbing the side of his face where blood emerged. Trump shortly after the shooting said the bullet struck his ear, in what many called a close call.
But speculators online argued that Trump’s actions after being shot supported their claims that the shooting was staged. A post from an X account with over 160,000 followers claimed Trump, who raised his fist in the air while being rushed offstage by Secret Service agents, could not “push off Secret Service who are much stronger than him.” The tweet had over 9 million views within 48 hours of the shooting.
Another X user identifying as a 60-year-old Democrat — and “not a conspiracy theorist” — baselessly claimed “Trump will do ANYTHING to stay out of prison,” including a staged assassination attempt. The post has over 1 million views.
According to NewsGuard, a news-rating service, the word “staged” trended on X the day of the assassination attempt. In the first 24 hours of the shooting, the word “staged" was mentioned over 300,000 times on X, “a 3,924 percent increase compared to the previous two-day period,” according to NewsGuard.
“Inside job”
A contradicting conspiracy narrative emerged within moments of the shooting, one that baselessly placed the blame on Democrats and President Joe Biden.
Questions about Secret Service protocol and apparent failures have fueled confusion and conspiracy theories. Some posts asked how the shooter was able to access a roof about 400 feet from Trump, while calling the shooting an inside job. Some of these posts have been viewed at least 7 million times on X.
One post with more than 7 million views speculated on how “the Secret Service let a guy climb up on a roof with a rifle only 150 yards from Trump?” before falsely claiming the shooting was an “inside job.”
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The “inside job” conspiracy theory also came from some federal, state and local officials.
"It's not just on the fringes anymore,” Aniano said about the spread of conspiracy theories. “It is very mainstreamed, and it has become more normalized and accepted.”
An Instagram post with over a half-million views from far-right Missouri state legislative candidate Valentina Gomez claims the security failure was intentional. Gomez said she was in the stands behind Trump at the Pennsylvania rally and claimed his security was “compromised.”
Republican Rep. Mike Collins claimed without evidence President Biden “sent the order” for the assassination attempt. In a post on X with more than 16 million views, Collins referenced a comment President Biden made to donors in a private call days before the shooting, in which he said that it was “time to put Trump in a bull's-eye.”
The president said in an interview with NBC News’ Lester Holt, “It was a mistake to use the word.”
Also twisted to paint the shooting as a government conspiracy: photos and videos of Secret Service agents at the rally. Many posts on Facebook shared a fake photo of Secret Service agents rushing Trump to safety. The photo is altered to show the agents smiling.
Other posts falsely claimed Trump was denied additional security prior to the attempted assassination.
A spokesperson for the Secret Service tried to knock down some theories by refuting them on X, calling allegations that agents were diverted from Trump to first lady Jill Biden “very wrong,” and saying the assertion that the Trump team requested more assets and was rejected is “absolutely false.”
“In fact, recently the U.S. Secret Service added protective resources and capabilities to the former President’s security detail,” a Secret Service statement said.
“Desperation for answers”
While the FBI is focused on the gunman and his motive, the Secret Service is investigating its security protocol, and Congress has opened a bipartisan investigation — it could take weeks or months to get answers.
In the meantime, lack of a clear motive will only increase the amount of conspiracy theories online, Aniano says. The latest conspiracy theory to emerge claims there was a second shooter, even as the FBI has said “the investigation to date indicates the shooter acted alone.”
“That desperation for answers,” Aniano said, “that desperation to have things align with the narrative already in your mind, that is the kind of thing that motivates misinformation and disinformation."
