MISSOULA — So, the one major question...will we have a white Christmas? I mean, it's in all the songs...right!? Let's discuss. And before we begin, to officially have a white Christmas snow needs to be falling or there needs to be at least 1" on the ground.
First let's talk about some historical Christmas records for Missoula and Kalispell. Those who lived here in 1996 will probably remember that as a very snowy winter. Missoula and Kalispell both had record snow depths with 21" in Missoula and 50" in Kalispell on Christmas day! More info on some of the historical numbers can be seen in the graph above.
Next let's talk about the probability of a white Christmas across the country (lower 48). The highest percentage of the country to have a white Christmas came in 2009 at 63%. The lowest percentage came just last year when only 17% of the country had snow on Christmas. Generally for us, valleys have between a 55-65% chance of a white Christmas, however, some locations are much higher.
Now let's talk about this year. Good news, weather looks great for travel, bad news, not great for snow. The ridge of high pressure that has dominated much of our weather this December looks to continue or even strengthen for the week leading up to Christmas. Right now temperatures look to be running in the upper 30s to mid 40s during the week leading up to Christmas. This would be running around 10-15 degrees above normal.
Now, if we can hold on to some hope, there is no skill in forecasting weather over 10 days out. All we can do is look at patterns and go from there. So, even though the pattern is not good for snow, that doesn't mean we can't have a quick storm move in and drop some snow just in time for Christmas day! We'll keep our fingers crossed!
